Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models

Given lags in the release of data, a central bank must ‘nowcast’ current gross domestic product (GDP) using available quarterly or higher frequency data to understand the current state of economic activity. This paper uses various statistical modelling techniques to draw on a large number of series to nowcast South African GDP. We also show that GDP volatility has increased markedly over the last 5 years, making GDP forecasting more difficult. We show that all the models developed, as well as the Reserve Bank's official forecasts, have tended to overestimate GDP growth over this period. However, several of the statistical nowcasting models we present in this paper provide competitive nowcasts relative to the official Reserve Bank and market analysts' nowcasts.     

An evaluation framework for developing green infrastructure by using a new hybrid multiple attribute decision-making model for promoting environmental sustainability

With the expansion of urbanization caused by the growth of population and industrial activities, the urban/city and suburban areas are facing a variety of environmental threats. Although more research and urban policy has advocated and practiced the development of green infrastructure (GI) to support urban sustainable environment, the evaluation framework for the development of GI for promoting environmental sustainability is still insufficient. Moreover, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) commonly applied in published literature, makes an unrealistic assumption of independent relationships among dimensions/criteria in decision making for satisfying the real-world problem. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to construct the evaluation framework, including four dimensions and related ten criteria, using a new hybrid-modified multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) model for developing and improving the GI for promoting environmental sustainability. This MADM model is combined with three different methodologies of MADM, including the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) for constructing the influential network relation map (INRM) to explore the complex influential inter-relationships and DEMATEL based on Analytic Network Process (DANP) for determining the influential weights with the VIse Kriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) for evaluating and presenting improvement strategies for six different GIs. The empirical study indicates that DEMATEL and DANP Results suggest that decision-makers should pay more attention to the improvement of Design (D₄) and Materials (D₂) in terms of dimensions when utilizing the GI to promote environmental sustainability. Because these dimensions are enhanced, Species (D₁) and Energy (D₃) will be improved in synchronization. From the perspective of criteria, five are key core criteria and need to be focused on first: increasing the green coverage rate (B₉), utilizing sustainable materials (B₄), using ecological engineering (B₈), shaping species biodiversity (B₁), and reducing energy consumption (B₅). Modified VIKOR reveals that “grass swales” are a comparatively better choice among six GIs for promoting environmental sustainability toward achieving the aspiration level. Therefore, this MADM model is beneficial to provide a more convincing assessment framework and improvement strategies for the development of GI for promoting environmental sustainability. As a result, these modified MADM models can be shown more conveniently and reasonably than traditional methods such as traditional AHP or ANP method.     

税收优惠影响企业创新产出的多元机制研究——来自中国软件与集成电路产业的证据

创新政策一直是激励企业创新的重要手段，其中税收优惠政策是一种具有市场导向性的激励政策，对企业创新具有良好的促进作用，但是政策对企业产生激励作用的原因尚不清晰。选取对我国技术突破有重要作用的软件与集成电路企业，采用2006-2018年中国A股上市公司数据，聚焦2011年国家对软件与集成电路行业的两个税收优惠政策，运用双重差分法对企业创新产出影响进行实证研究。结果发现：税收优惠政策对发明专利申请有显著促进作用，而对非发明专利申请无显著影响。融资约束、企业避税行为等是税收激励政策发挥作用的主要渠道。另外，税收优惠政策对不同规模、产权和区域企业有不同影响，税收优惠政策对大型企业、国有企业以及中西部地区企业创新产出促进作用更大。从税收优惠政策长期影响看，该政策对专利申请的影响存在时滞性，而发明专利申请在政策发生当年就显著增加。研究结论可为明晰税收优惠政策、融资约束与企业创新产出间关系提供有益启示。     

重要生态用地级别评价和划定方法研究——以水源涵养为例

文章以水源涵养为例,基于水平衡评价计算方法,选择水资源禀赋类型不同的县域单元开展水源涵养型生态用地功能分级划定研究。总结现有生态保护红线划定技术方法及存在不足,致力于显化不同地区水源涵养生态用地功能绝对值差异,利用评价单元格水源涵养累计贡献值面积弹性拐点,对重要水源涵养用地级别划定方法进行改进。对河北省易县和四川省金川县的实例验证表明,此评价方法可以根据不同地区水源涵养功能特点量身确定重要生态空间规模、面积和比例。     

湖北省优化营商环境分析与优化研究

良好的营商环境对提升区域综合竞争力具有重大意义。本文采用近年湖北省营商环境相关数据,运用主成分分析法运算得分,从经贸环境、社会环境、基础设施、生态环境、服务环境等湖北营商环境指标,揭示相关政策措施对湖北省营商环境的促进作用,以期为相关部门完善优化营商环境政策,提升湖北省营商环境提供参考。     

生计资本对黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计活动的影响及评价*——以甘肃省榆中县为例

［目的］通过深入研究黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计资本对生计活动的影响，为解决农村贫困问题，提升农户生计资本存量、实现区域可持续生计发展提供科学依据。［方法］文章以甘肃省榆中县为例，基于对榆中县农户的调查数据，采用熵值法分析了东北部山区、中部川区和西南部山区贫困人口的生计资本状况和生计活动方式，并对其生计活动进行评价。［结果］从农户的生计资本组合来看，榆中县整体自然资本和人力资本相对物质资本、金融资本、社会资本3类资本较为富裕，尤其在西南部山区和东北部山区3类资本缺乏型农户比例较高。中部川区各乡镇人口的总体生计资本状况较好，总指数最高，而西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，两者生计资本状况总体匮乏。农户的生计活动主要以种植、养殖和外出打工为主，生计活动多样性程度偏低； 中部川区人口的生计活动多样性指数最高，西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，且整体受教育程度偏低，加之物质资本、金融资本、社会资本缺乏进一步限制了当地农户的生计多样性。［结论］（1）针对不同生计资本水平和生计活动多样性程度偏低的贫困地区，需要进一步发挥民族文化产业扶贫优势，开启地域产业扶贫新模式，打造地域无公害特色农业产业品牌，提高农户物质资本边际贡献； （2）发展小额信贷金融服务，改善农户金融资本存量，预防村际农户金融资本二元极化； （3）实施免费教育培训技能学习，打造教育培训脱贫示范村，提高人力资本存量，缓解贫困人口生计压力等提高经济发展水平的扶贫政策措施。     

基于PSR模型的北京市西北生态涵养区生态健康评价研究

研究目的:作为保障首都生态环境质量与可持续发展的关键区域,北京市西北生态涵养区的生态健康程度反映了生态文明战略部署下首都高质量发展的综合成效。本文通过构建北京市西北生态涵养区健康评价指标体系,评价该区域的生态健康程度,为生态涵养区的可持续发展提供对策建议。研究方法:PSR模型、层次分析法(AHP)。研究结果:(1)基于PSR模型构建的生态健康评价指标体系包括压力、状态和响应系统3个准则层和10个评价指标,涵盖涵养区自然生态和人类活动影响;(2)研究区4个时段的健康指数分别为0.673、0.664、0.650、0.687,生态健康等级为一般。研究结论:北京市西北涵养区生态健康状况较为稳定,在保持西北涵养区建设现有成果的基础上,需要加大生态建设的力度,进一步提高生态健康水平。     

盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model

This paper introduces a combination of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects in order to build superior extensions of the GARCH-MIDAS model for modeling and forecasting the stock volatility. Our in-sample results clearly verify that extreme shocks have a significant impact on the stock volatility and that the volatility can be influenced more by the asymmetry effect than by the extreme volatility effect in both the long and short term. Out-of-sample results with several robustness checks demonstrate that our proposed models can achieve better performances in forecasting the volatility. Furthermore, the improvement in predictive ability is attributed more strongly to the introduction of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects for the short-term volatility component.